Product · Holdover
Telemetry dark. Minutes the estimate holds.
A radio site, a span, a feed or a UPS fails and part of a line goes dark. How many minutes each segment's estimate stays inside tolerance, and the smallest leak still detectable. Per segment, per loss pattern, with a bound.
In designDesigned from existing building blocks. Not built.
Engine · Pipeline state estimator with intermittent, correlated data loss
1
Minutes each segment's estimate holds, 90 % bound (target)
2
Smallest leak still detectable after T blind minutes (target)
3
Correlated loss (shared feed, UPS, site, span, satellite hub) scored against random loss
Needs
- SCADA historian export with dropout and freeze flags
- Sensor-to-path map: site, span, feed, UPS per sensor (hand-declared first)
- UPS runtimes and backhaul topology
- Wavepin's line model for the segment
Is not
- Not a backup SCADA
- Not the manual-operation plan: it times one
- No regulator has accepted a computed blind time
- Never writes to the control system
- Not built. No field result.
Where it stops
Wavepin finds the leak while data flows. Holdover says how long that estimate holds when data stops, and which sensors stop together. Same truth simulator, same tournament.
Built from
What exists, what does not
pipeintel (Wavepin engines): truth simulator, SCADA imperfection model (dropout, freeze, delay, bias), validity masks, discrete-time state observer, signature-bank fit, hypothesis engine with UNEXPLAINED, frozen-threshold tournament, ledger; about 45 % of the first proof. The incident twin (telecom harness, separate codebase): a storm-track footprint as the hazard. The 450 MHz asset record's cut and UPS-runtime read (telecom harness, separate codebase): to port, about 40 lines. The RF link simulator: optional arrival priors. The playbook engine: the manual-operation plan as a timed contract (harness, not moat). New: boundary heads as estimated states, an intermittent Kalman filter and a constrained estimator carried through the blind window, 1–3 h scenarios, a dropout-mask generator, a pipeline corridor in the demo world.
First proof
The experiment
Three weeks, one person. Long scenarios (1–3 h) on Wavepin's 20 km line; a hand-declared dependency map (two radio sites, one span, two UPS); masks: random, burst, correlated group, timed UPS depletion; 2,000 scenarios. Hold-last-value against the adaptive engine with masks, the open-loop model and an intermittent Kalman filter with boundary-head states. One table: minutes until the 90 % bound passes the leak-detection floor, per mask; leak recall inside the window; correlated against random loss at the same rate. Negative results in the ledger.
Tournament
Scored against
Truth: Wavepin's line simulator with a dropout layer, 1–3 h scenarios. Loss patterns: random, bursts, correlated group loss from a declared dependency map, primary plus backup, timed UPS depletion, satellite fade, a false low pressure, freeze. Estimator on a coarser model, wave speed and friction off-nominal, operator actions unknown. Against: hold-last-value (today's display), suspend-and-resume monitoring, open-loop model, adaptive engine with masks, intermittent Kalman, constrained moving-horizon, a learned model with validity flags. Thresholds frozen at 5 % false alarms. Scored: predicted against realised minutes to tolerance, bound coverage, leak recall against loss rate, how often the estimate is called valid when it is not.
Kill rule
Correlated loss changes nothing against random loss at the same rate: Holdover folds into Wavepin.
Methods
- Kalman filtering with intermittent, burst-correlated observations
- Covariance growth through a blind window under unknown boundary inputs
- Observability of each segment per sensor-loss pattern
- Correlated-failure Monte Carlo on a power, radio, fibre and satellite dependency map (phase 2)
Rules and standards
- 49 CFR 192.631 control room management: yearly backup-SCADA and manual-operation plan tests; no limit on blind time
- 49 CFR 195.446 control room management, hazardous liquids
- 49 CFR 195.3 incorporation by reference: API RP 1130 (computational monitoring), RP 1165 (SCADA displays), RP 1168 (control room)
- NIST SP 800-82r3, Guide to OT Security (2023): loss of view, alternate communication paths
- 3GPP TS 22.104 (ETSI TS 122 104 V19.2.0): availability and survival-time definitions
- API RP 1175, Pipeline Leak Detection Program Management (2nd ed., April 2022)
Also
See Holdover on your asset.
Designed from existing building blocks. Not built. A conversation first; a data pilot when it is ready.